A Butterfly in China

Dennis Dixon’s torn ACL will help Barack Obama win the Iowa caucus.

Outrageous? Possibly, but follow this twisted and convoluted trail of logic. Losing Dennis Dixon for the year bring the Oregon Ducks all the way down from the best in the nation to middle of pack in the Pac-10 (can someone explain to me why at the moment of injury he is immediately eliminated from the Heisman race?). This makes them vulnerable to mediocre teams like Arizona and, possibly this week, UCLA. Had Dixon remained healthy, his amazing feet and dazzling arm would have ensured the Ducks easy victories over both the Wildcats and Bruins. As it stands, however, Oregon permitted Arizona’s 5th win and may permit UCLA’s 6th, getting them both closer to previously improbable bowl bids. Before Dixon went down, it seemed certain that the Pac-10 would not have more than 5 teams qualify for post-season play. If the Pac-10 is unable to fill all 6 of their bowl tie-ins, then other at-large qualifying teams get a shot.

Iowa has qualified for a bowl by winning 6 games. But they lost their final match to Western Michigan, dropping their record to 6-6. Although they finished in the middle of the Big-10 with a 4-4 league record and are well known to carry a huge fan base that travels religiously, NCAA and Big-10 by-laws do not allow a 6-6 team to be selected ahead of a 7-5 team. There are 7 other Big-10 schools with better records than Iowa, effectively locking up the 7 bowl tie-ins that the league enjoys. If Arizona and UCLA fail to win a 6th game, Iowa, along with a few thousand Hawkeye faithful would likely be selected to take their place.

But a weakened Oregon team allows the Pac-10 their full allocation, keeping Hawkeye nation home for the holidays. Most Hawkeye fans plan their New Year’s holidays around the Iowa bowl game. The 2008 Iowa caucus is scheduled for the ridiculously early date of January 3rd. Had the Hawkeyes played in a game anywhere close to New Years (such as the expected Insight Bowl on December 31st), then a few thousand Iowans would have skipped the caucus in favor of a road trip to somewhere warm.

A big contingent of road-tripping Iowans consists of students and young urban professionals. This just happens to be Barack Obama’s best demographic- effectively his base of support. Had they been in Tempe, Hillary would have a bigger edge on caucus night.

All because of Dennis Dixon’s torn ACL.

Fight On,

Hans