An enduring mathematical principle related to casino gambling is called “gambler’s ruin”. While you may be adept at calculating the odds of drawing an inside straight with the river card remaining and you may be a whiz with maximizing your probability while holding a “13” while the dealer shows a “7”, you cannot escape gambler’s ruin. The principle has to do with bankrolls. As a player, you have a pre-set gambling budget and, at some point, you will stop playing due to losses. As a casino, you have relatively more infinite resources and will keep playing. Two piles of money, one small and one big. Eventually, the big pile will end up with the money and the other will crawl into their hotel room to sleep off their margarita-induced hangover.
I arrived in Las Vegas Friday night armed with a remarkably valuable tool: the collective wisdom of the world-famous underdog pool. 44 people thinking together will always be smarter than 1. I pulled out the list of popular picks and filled out a parlay card with the 4 top games (Oregon State over Boise State, Central Michigan over Northwestern, NS state over Georgia Tech, and Wyoming over Air Force). Then, because I was feeling clever and very proud of myself, I filled out two more cards: one with purely my opinion and one that was a blend of my picks and the pool’s picks.
You can guess which one of the three came through.
The card with my own picks died quickly when Virginia Tech shut out Boston College 19-0. The hybrid bet did very well, getting 4 of 5 correct, but in parlay bets, close isn’t good enough. The only game I missed was one of my own choosing: I took Texas, giving 7 points with over UCLA. It seemed like a no brainer to me. UCLA had no chance against Texas in Austin! But, dear friends and neighbors, that is why we play the games. That was easily the biggest win of Neuhisel’s Bruin career. The pure-underdog-pool selections came through, with Central Michigan, Oregon State, Wyoming losing by less than the spread and NC State thumping Georgia. I walked away with enough for a nice dinner, happily handing the money back to the casino in exchange for a plate of foie goise with a view of the strip. See: like I said, the house always wins.
Another storyline from this weekend was the Pac-10 asserting itself in a big way. I already mentioned UCLA’s head turning upset of Texas. Stanford rolled over Notre Dame on the road, Oregon State held serve in the track meet with Boise, and Utah, soon to be a member, took San Jose State behind the woodshed 56-3.
When the new rankings were released this morning, I was very pleased to see that Stanford is finally ranked in the top 10 along with Oregon. It’s about time. They whipped UCLA 35-0, beat the living shit out of Wake Forest, and dominated Notre Dame in South Bend. Game Day just made it official: they will be in Eugene next week for this week’s game of the century, Stanford at Oregon.
As evidenced by Oregon, Stanford, and Boise’s rankings, the west coast is finally getting the respect it deserves from the east coast voters. As we enter the conference play part of the season, however, the Pac-10 is going to hurt its reputation when the members start beating on each other. Arizona escaped with a 10-9 win over Cal last night, but there is plenty of blood to be shed in the Pac-10 round-robin Hell. This is the second-to-last incantation of the Pac-10 round robin, with a conference championship game coming in 2012. Just in time for USC to return to Bowl eligibility.
Fight On,
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